jumping to conclusions

Jumping to Conclusions: The Story
in Your Mind - Before it Even Happens
​by Ethan Zong

You text someone you are seeing: “Hey, do you have any plans tomorrow night?”
 
An hour passes. No response.
 
Your chest tightens just a little.
 
Two hours pass.
Now your mind is moving:
 
“They’re pulling away from me.”
“I probably said something wrong yesterday.”
“They’re losing interest in me.”
 
By the time they finally reply — “Sorry, long meeting! No, I am free tomorrow night!” — your nervous system has already gone through an entire breakup.
 
Nothing actually happened, but your mind filled in the blanks.
 
Or imagine this: 
 
Your partner walks into the room quieter than usual. They don’t smile the way they normally do. You ask, “Everything okay?” They say, “Yeah, I am fine.”
 
But your mind whispers:
 
“They’re hiding things.”
“They’re upset and not telling me.”
“Something is wrong between us.”
 
You start rewinding about yesterday’s conversation. You become more conscious of mistakes. Your tone changes. You become distant — or defensive — all in response to a story that hasn’t been confirmed.

In CBT, this pattern is called Jumping to Conclusions. It’s one of the most common cognitive distortions, and it usually shows up in two forms: Fortune-Telling and Mind-Reading.
 
Fortune-Telling: Predicting a Negative Future
 
Fortune-telling happens when you treat your predictions as facts.
 
In relationships, it often sounds like: 
 
“This is how it always starts. They’ll leave eventually.”
 If we’re arguing now, this probably won’t last.”
 
A small moment becomes a forecast of disaster.
Fortune-telling also fuels anxiety outside relationships:
 
Before a flight: “What if something goes wrong?”
Before a presentation: “I’m going to embarrass myself.”
During a difficult season: “This will never change.”

Hopelessness is often fortune-telling about the future. 
 
Anxiety is fortune-telling dressed as preparation
 
The brain confuses possibility with inevitability — and the body reacts as if the prediction is already real. 
 
Mind-Reading: Assuming You Know What They Think
 
It happens when you assume you know what someone else is thinking — without real evidence.
 
In romantic relationships:
“They didn’t post me — I must not be important.”
"They seem distracted. I’m probably boring them.”
"If they loved me, I wouldn’t have to ask.”
 
In conflict:
​“They don’t respect me.”
“They’re being difficult on purpose.”
 
In social anxiety:
“Everyone can see how nervous I am.”
“They think I’m awkward.”
 
In depression:
“Nobody actually cares about me.”
 
Often, the pain isn’t only what happened.  It’s the certainty we attach to what we think it meant.

And once we believe the story, we start reacting to it — withdrawing, accusing, over-explaining, shutting down — all in response to a narrative that may not be true.
 
Slowing the Jump
 
The goal in CBT isn’t to eliminate uncertainty. It’s to stop treating assumptions as facts.  A simple pause can help:
 
What am I assuming right now?
What do I actually know for sure?
What are three other possible explanations?
 
This small shift moves the brain from reaction to investigation.
 
Techniques like Examine the Evidence, behavioral experiments, or even gently asking for clarification can test these thinking errors in our head.
 
Before challenging the thought, CBT sometimes invites us to ask a different question: What do these negative thoughts and feelings reveal about my values?

Fear of losing someone may show how deeply you value connection.
Anxiety about conflict may show you care about harmony.
Worry about being rejected may reflect a desire to be loved fully.

These thoughts often carry a positive intention:
Anxiety can motivate communication.
Doubt can encourage reflection.
Sensitivity can increase empathy.

When you recognize the value underneath the alarm system, the mind becomes less of an enemy and more of a signal.
 
And once we notice the value underneath the alarm, we can begin to reality-check the story.
 
Jumping to conclusions is human. The brain is wired to predict and interpret quickly — especially in relationships, where attachment feels high-stakes.
 
But suffering increases when predictions turn into certainty and assumptions turn into facts.

So the next time your partner is quiet, your message goes unanswered, or your mind starts forecasting the end, pause and ask: "Is this happening, or is this my mind filling in the blanks? "